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World · POLYMARKET · LIVE
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Ends: Dec 31, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Sep 18, 2026, 06:48 UTC
VERDICTINSUFFICIENT DATA
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
POLYMARKET YES 74.0%MARX FAIR YES -
MARX FAIRFair Price was not published: reliable data is insufficient.
Jul 16, 10:48 AMAug 01, 12:36 AMAug 16, 02:23 PMSep 01, 04:10 AMSep 16, 05:57 PM UTC
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16T10:48:48.739Z | 66.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-18T10:37:59.535Z | 53.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-26T08:57:11.184Z | 57.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-27T18:59:27.027Z | 50.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T16:56:38.333Z | 59.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T04:59:20.024Z | 55.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T21:58:48.030Z | 59.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T23:56:44.105Z | 65.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-14T20:25:18.888Z | 73.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-14T23:55:23.195Z | 73.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T08:53:22.749Z | 78.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-19T18:39:04.880Z | 67.0% | - | — |
| 2026-09-16T17:57:50.079Z | 74.0% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.