Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs M80 - Map 1 Winner
Ends: Aug 13, 2026, 20:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 13, 2026, 16:12 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
AURORA GAMING probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13T13:46:37.282Z | 65.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T13:51:44.709Z | 66.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T13:56:57.986Z | 66.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T14:03:44.759Z | 79.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T14:08:50.753Z | 82.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T14:15:21.612Z | 72.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T14:20:35.915Z | 80.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T14:25:54.599Z | 80.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T14:31:38.395Z | 96.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T14:36:45.296Z | 88.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T14:41:51.649Z | 88.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T14:51:14.119Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T14:56:21.123Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T15:01:36.181Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T15:06:55.646Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T15:12:05.045Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T15:17:09.583Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T15:22:15.510Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T15:27:24.508Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T15:32:30.475Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T15:37:36.673Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T15:44:33.424Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T15:49:39.689Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T15:54:44.779Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T15:59:50.769Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T16:05:09.808Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T16:10:21.791Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T16:12:30.460Z | 100.0% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market refers to the Counter-Strike Lower bracket quarterfinal 2 match between Aurora Gaming and M80 in the Esports World Cup Group A, initially scheduled for August 13 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming" if Aurora Gaming win Map 1 against M80. This market will resolve to "M80" if M80 win Map 1 against Aurora Gaming. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 1. If Map 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.