Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends: Nov 7, 2028, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Sep 17, 2026, 02:47 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03T15:49:51.211Z | 11.8% | 3.1% | -8.7 pp |
| 2026-08-03T16:44:21.548Z | 11.8% | 3.1% | -8.7 pp |
| 2026-08-03T18:44:45.972Z | 11.8% | 3.1% | -8.7 pp |
| 2026-08-03T20:44:41.449Z | 11.8% | 3.1% | -8.7 pp |
| 2026-08-03T22:45:08.619Z | 11.8% | 3.1% | -8.7 pp |
| 2026-08-03T23:48:24.500Z | 11.8% | 3.1% | -8.7 pp |
| 2026-08-04T01:47:21.657Z | 11.8% | 3.1% | -8.7 pp |
| 2026-08-04T03:43:26.742Z | 11.8% | 3.1% | -8.7 pp |
| 2026-08-04T05:59:20.983Z | 11.8% | 3.1% | -8.7 pp |
| 2026-08-04T07:58:01.729Z | 11.8% | 3.1% | -8.7 pp |
| 2026-08-04T08:46:50.531Z | 11.8% | 3.1% | -8.7 pp |
| 2026-08-04T10:44:44.443Z | 11.8% | 3.1% | -8.7 pp |
| 2026-08-04T12:53:33.776Z | 11.8% | 3.1% | -8.7 pp |
| 2026-08-04T12:58:14.872Z | 11.8% | 3.1% | -8.7 pp |
| 2026-08-04T14:43:10.883Z | 11.8% | 3.1% | -8.7 pp |
| 2026-08-04T16:51:56.845Z | 11.8% | 3.1% | -8.7 pp |
| 2026-08-04T17:58:14.090Z | 11.8% | 3.1% | -8.7 pp |
| 2026-08-04T19:52:46.721Z | 11.8% | 3.1% | -8.7 pp |
| 2026-08-04T21:47:22.159Z | 11.8% | 3.1% | -8.7 pp |
| 2026-08-06T19:59:28.251Z | 10.9% | 3.1% | -7.9 pp |
| 2026-08-10T11:39:20.166Z | 9.7% | 3.1% | -6.6 pp |
| 2026-08-11T09:59:48.361Z | 9.7% | 3.1% | -6.6 pp |
| 2026-08-13T16:56:39.866Z | 9.3% | 3.1% | -6.2 pp |
| 2026-08-16T18:58:28.347Z | 8.8% | 3.1% | -5.7 pp |
| 2026-08-18T20:42:08.441Z | 8.2% | 3.1% | -5.1 pp |
| 2026-08-20T14:56:43.681Z | 8.8% | 3.1% | -5.7 pp |
| 2026-08-22T20:57:48.556Z | 8.2% | 3.1% | -5.1 pp |
| 2026-08-25T04:54:20.116Z | 8.5% | 3.1% | -5.4 pp |
| 2026-09-15T16:58:58.704Z | 7.9% | 3.1% | -4.8 pp |
| 2026-09-17T02:47:18.827Z | 8.3% | 3.1% | -5.2 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 04, 09:47 PM | 11.8% | 3.1% | −8.7 pp | BUY NO |
| Aug 04, 07:52 PM | 11.8% | 3.1% | −8.7 pp | BUY NO |
| Aug 04, 05:58 PM | 11.8% | 3.1% | −8.7 pp | BUY NO |
| Aug 04, 04:51 PM | 11.8% | 3.1% | −8.7 pp | BUY NO |
| Aug 04, 02:43 PM | 11.8% | 3.1% | −8.7 pp | BUY NO |
| Aug 04, 12:58 PM | 11.8% | 3.1% | −8.7 pp | BUY NO |
| Aug 04, 10:44 AM | 11.8% | 3.1% | −8.7 pp | BUY NO |
| Aug 04, 08:46 AM | 11.8% | 3.1% | −8.7 pp | BUY NO |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.