Set Handicap: Osaka (-1.5) vs Mertens (+1.5)
Ends: Aug 15, 2026, 14:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 8, 2026, 02:51 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
OSAKA probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08T00:23:23.017Z | 99.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T00:28:34.078Z | 99.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T00:33:48.465Z | 99.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T00:38:55.551Z | 99.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T00:44:08.247Z | 99.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T00:49:11.547Z | 99.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T00:54:18.338Z | 99.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T00:59:21.596Z | 99.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T01:04:32.619Z | 99.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T01:09:43.885Z | 99.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T01:14:57.012Z | 99.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T01:20:05.613Z | 99.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T01:25:13.112Z | 99.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T01:30:18.316Z | 99.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T01:35:26.281Z | 99.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T01:40:44.949Z | 99.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T01:45:53.880Z | 99.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T01:50:55.874Z | 99.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T01:56:02.661Z | 99.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T02:01:06.583Z | 99.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T02:06:11.271Z | 99.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T02:11:16.478Z | 99.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T02:16:26.418Z | 99.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T02:21:30.162Z | 99.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T02:26:35.744Z | 99.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T02:31:45.819Z | 99.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T02:36:56.975Z | 99.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T02:43:03.687Z | 99.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T02:48:06.597Z | 99.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T02:51:03.404Z | 99.6% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market refers to the tennis match between Naomi Osaka and Elise Mertens in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 8, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Osaka" if Naomi Osaka wins by 2 or more sets than Elise Mertens, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Mertens." If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official WTA results.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.