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Crypto · POLYMARKET · CLOSED

Bitcoin Up or Down on October 22?

Ends: Oct 22, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Oct 22, 2026, 16:15 UTCResult: DOWNResolved: Oct 22, 2026, 16:12 UTC

VERDICTNO PUBLISHED ANALYSIS

POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR

Probability divergence over time

POLYMARKET UP 0.1%MARX FAIR UP -
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair0%19%38%56%75%
MARX FAIRFair Price was not published: reliable data is insufficient.
Oct 21, 04:48 AMOct 21, 01:37 PMOct 21, 10:26 PMOct 22, 07:15 AMOct 22, 04:03 PM UTC

UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-10-21T08:56:30.338Z50.0%-—
2026-10-21T09:57:50.932Z49.5%-—
2026-10-21T10:57:13.481Z49.5%-—
2026-10-21T11:58:24.313Z49.5%-—
2026-10-21T12:57:13.784Z49.5%-—
2026-10-21T13:58:57.062Z49.5%-—
2026-10-21T14:41:10.028Z49.5%-—
2026-10-21T15:54:54.410Z49.5%-—
2026-10-21T17:58:38.543Z54.5%-—
2026-10-21T18:58:01.963Z44.5%-—
2026-10-21T19:58:54.491Z50.0%-—
2026-10-21T21:59:04.367Z57.5%-—
2026-10-21T22:51:58.485Z49.5%-—
2026-10-21T23:49:20.000Z40.5%-—
2026-10-22T00:56:44.050Z38.5%-—
2026-10-22T01:58:50.246Z17.0%-—
2026-10-22T02:58:49.489Z7.5%-—
2026-10-22T03:58:59.860Z6.5%-—
2026-10-22T04:57:48.261Z6.5%-—
2026-10-22T05:54:49.648Z5.5%-—
2026-10-22T06:55:08.493Z4.5%-—
2026-10-22T07:56:13.531Z3.6%-—
2026-10-22T08:57:11.846Z3.3%-—
2026-10-22T09:50:30.765Z3.1%-—
2026-10-22T10:58:38.530Z2.7%-—
2026-10-22T11:59:03.953Z2.3%-—
2026-10-22T12:59:55.238Z2.2%-—
2026-10-22T14:55:55.412Z0.3%-—
2026-10-22T15:44:07.979Z0.1%-—
2026-10-22T16:03:43.969Z0.1%-—

MARKET TIMELINE

Events are placed when they became available to the system

0 events

No linked events in this range.

INSUFFICIENT DATA

  • No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
  • No verified analysis was published before the market closed.
  • A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.

There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.

KEY RISKS

  • New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.

RESOLUTION CRITERIA

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Oct 21 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Oct 22 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Oct 21 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Oct 22 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETWHY NO ANALYSISSTRATEGY