Will Shedeur Sanders be the Browns' Week 1 starting QB?
Ends: OpenMarket data: Aug 24, 2026, 05:21 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23T06:04:35.400Z | 51.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-23T07:06:06.683Z | 50.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-23T11:21:01.781Z | 52.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-23T15:55:13.577Z | 72.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-23T20:23:59.539Z | 41.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-24T00:55:36.453Z | 28.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-24T05:21:37.032Z | 25.5% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve according to the player that is officially announced by the listed team to be the starting quarterback in Week 1 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season. In the event that no starting quarterback is officially announced by the team, this market will resolve in favor of the listed quarterback who takes the field on the listed team’s first offensive play. In the event two listed quarterbacks take the field on the first offensive play of the Cleveland Browns’ Week 1 game, this market will resolve in favor of the player directly receiving the snap. If neither listed quarterback directly receives the snap, this market will resolve in favor of the quarterback who first directly receives a snap in the game. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the quarterback whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If Week 1 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or no official starter has taken the field within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL and/or the Cleveland Browns; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.