Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?
Ends: Aug 11, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 10, 2026, 10:28 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10T07:59:34.765Z | 62.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T08:04:40.115Z | 62.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T08:09:48.636Z | 62.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T08:15:00.207Z | 62.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T08:20:06.810Z | 62.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T08:25:10.735Z | 62.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T08:30:17.984Z | 62.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T08:35:22.357Z | 62.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T08:40:43.326Z | 62.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T08:45:54.971Z | 62.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T08:51:01.302Z | 62.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T08:56:21.056Z | 62.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T09:01:31.714Z | 62.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T09:06:48.146Z | 62.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T09:11:50.455Z | 62.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T09:16:56.541Z | 62.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T09:21:59.612Z | 62.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T09:27:10.929Z | 62.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T09:32:20.778Z | 62.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T09:37:31.006Z | 62.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T09:43:54.224Z | 62.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T09:49:07.334Z | 62.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T09:54:21.500Z | 62.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T09:59:54.436Z | 62.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T10:05:09.491Z | 62.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T10:10:20.679Z | 62.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T10:15:33.729Z | 62.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T10:20:40.422Z | 62.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T10:26:01.717Z | 62.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T10:28:46.850Z | 62.0% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Minnesota, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Minnesota Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Minnesota Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.