Bitcoin Up or Down on August 9?
Ends: Aug 9, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 9, 2026, 07:08 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09T04:25:53.329Z | 21.5% | 33.1% | +11.6 pp |
| 2026-08-09T04:32:48.689Z | 21.5% | 33.5% | +12.0 pp |
| 2026-08-09T04:36:49.488Z | 20.5% | 33.2% | +12.7 pp |
| 2026-08-09T04:47:45.182Z | 20.5% | 32.9% | +12.4 pp |
| 2026-08-09T04:51:51.457Z | 20.5% | 31.5% | +11.0 pp |
| 2026-08-09T04:55:54.425Z | 20.5% | 31.4% | +10.9 pp |
| 2026-08-09T05:03:33.905Z | 20.5% | 31.3% | +10.8 pp |
| 2026-08-09T05:04:52.988Z | 20.5% | 31.3% | +10.8 pp |
| 2026-08-09T05:08:46.786Z | 20.5% | 31.2% | +10.7 pp |
| 2026-08-09T05:17:46.899Z | 20.5% | 31.2% | +10.7 pp |
| 2026-08-09T05:21:49.735Z | 20.5% | 31.1% | +10.6 pp |
| 2026-08-09T05:30:02.990Z | 20.5% | 31.3% | +10.8 pp |
| 2026-08-09T05:36:51.336Z | 21.5% | 31.1% | +9.6 pp |
| 2026-08-09T05:41:01.554Z | 21.5% | 31.1% | +9.6 pp |
| 2026-08-09T05:51:43.021Z | 21.5% | 30.2% | +8.7 pp |
| 2026-08-09T05:58:52.506Z | 21.5% | 30.9% | +9.4 pp |
| 2026-08-09T06:02:52.277Z | 21.5% | 31.4% | +9.9 pp |
| 2026-08-09T06:06:52.178Z | 21.5% | 31.4% | +9.9 pp |
| 2026-08-09T06:08:43.911Z | 21.5% | 31.4% | +9.9 pp |
| 2026-08-09T06:09:39.590Z | 21.5% | 31.4% | +9.9 pp |
| 2026-08-09T06:10:56.443Z | 21.5% | 31.4% | +9.9 pp |
| 2026-08-09T06:18:18.624Z | 21.5% | 32.1% | +10.6 pp |
| 2026-08-09T06:23:50.390Z | 21.5% | 33.6% | +12.1 pp |
| 2026-08-09T06:31:45.897Z | 21.5% | 33.4% | +11.9 pp |
| 2026-08-09T06:35:49.727Z | 21.5% | 33.9% | +12.4 pp |
| 2026-08-09T06:39:52.368Z | 24.5% | 34.5% | +10.0 pp |
| 2026-08-09T06:51:43.512Z | 24.5% | 34.4% | +9.9 pp |
| 2026-08-09T07:00:10.958Z | 24.5% | 34.1% | +9.6 pp |
| 2026-08-09T07:06:48.990Z | 24.5% | 33.4% | +8.9 pp |
| 2026-08-09T07:08:47.954Z | 24.5% | 33.4% | +8.9 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 09, 07:06 AM | 21.5% | 33.4% | +12 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 09, 07:00 AM | 21.5% | 34.1% | +13 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 09, 06:51 AM | 21.5% | 34.4% | +13 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 09, 06:39 AM | 21.5% | 34.5% | +13 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 09, 06:35 AM | 21.5% | 33.9% | +12 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 09, 06:31 AM | 21.5% | 33.4% | +12 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 09, 06:23 AM | 21.5% | 33.6% | +12 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 09, 06:18 AM | 21.5% | 32.1% | +11 pp | BUY UP |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 8 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 9 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 8 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 9 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.