Bitcoin Up or Down on August 9?
Ends: Aug 9, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 9, 2026, 06:23 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09T03:45:49.470Z | 32.5% | 32.9% | +0.4 pp |
| 2026-08-09T03:49:32.073Z | 32.5% | 32.8% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-09T03:52:49.686Z | 32.5% | 32.6% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-09T03:54:51.576Z | 32.5% | 32.6% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-09T04:02:52.445Z | 32.5% | 32.2% | -0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-09T04:08:48.383Z | 22.5% | 32.5% | +10.0 pp |
| 2026-08-09T04:17:48.820Z | 22.5% | 33.6% | +11.1 pp |
| 2026-08-09T04:23:52.362Z | 22.5% | 33.1% | +10.6 pp |
| 2026-08-09T04:30:09.508Z | 22.5% | 34.0% | +11.5 pp |
| 2026-08-09T04:34:52.583Z | 22.5% | 33.5% | +11.0 pp |
| 2026-08-09T04:40:52.178Z | 22.5% | 33.2% | +10.7 pp |
| 2026-08-09T04:49:48.556Z | 22.5% | 32.9% | +10.4 pp |
| 2026-08-09T04:53:50.795Z | 22.5% | 31.4% | +8.9 pp |
| 2026-08-09T04:59:53.526Z | 22.5% | 31.3% | +8.8 pp |
| 2026-08-09T05:04:53.528Z | 22.5% | 31.3% | +8.8 pp |
| 2026-08-09T05:08:46.786Z | 22.5% | 31.2% | +8.7 pp |
| 2026-08-09T05:17:46.899Z | 22.5% | 31.2% | +8.7 pp |
| 2026-08-09T05:23:50.120Z | 22.5% | 31.1% | +8.6 pp |
| 2026-08-09T05:30:02.990Z | 22.5% | 31.3% | +8.8 pp |
| 2026-08-09T05:36:51.336Z | 22.5% | 31.1% | +8.6 pp |
| 2026-08-09T05:41:01.554Z | 22.5% | 31.1% | +8.6 pp |
| 2026-08-09T05:51:43.021Z | 22.5% | 30.2% | +7.7 pp |
| 2026-08-09T05:55:53.519Z | 22.5% | 30.6% | +8.1 pp |
| 2026-08-09T06:02:52.277Z | 22.5% | 31.4% | +8.9 pp |
| 2026-08-09T06:06:52.178Z | 22.5% | 31.4% | +8.9 pp |
| 2026-08-09T06:08:43.297Z | 22.5% | 31.4% | +8.9 pp |
| 2026-08-09T06:10:56.443Z | 22.5% | 31.4% | +8.9 pp |
| 2026-08-09T06:16:55.977Z | 22.5% | 32.1% | +9.6 pp |
| 2026-08-09T06:21:48.511Z | 22.5% | 32.9% | +10.4 pp |
| 2026-08-09T06:23:52.025Z | 22.5% | 32.9% | +10.4 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 09, 06:21 AM | 32.5% | 32.9% | +0.4 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 09, 06:16 AM | 32.5% | 32.1% | −0.4 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 09, 06:10 AM | 32.5% | 31.4% | −1.1 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 09, 06:08 AM | 32.5% | 31.4% | −1.1 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 09, 06:06 AM | 32.5% | 31.4% | −1.1 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 09, 06:02 AM | 32.5% | 31.4% | −1.1 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 09, 05:55 AM | 32.5% | 30.6% | −1.9 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 09, 05:51 AM | 32.5% | 30.2% | −2.3 pp | NO EDGE |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 8 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 9 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 8 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 9 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.