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World · POLYMARKET · LIVE
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
Ends: Jul 31, 2026, 23:59 UTCMarket data: Jul 30, 2026, 10:19 UTC
VERDICTFAIR VALUE CALCULATING
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
POLYMARKET YES 96.9%MARX FAIR YES -
MARX FAIRFair Price is calculating. The line appears after data validation.
Jul 16, 10:48 AMJul 19, 10:41 PMJul 23, 10:34 AMJul 26, 10:26 PMJul 30, 10:19 AM UTC
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T19:12:08.024Z | 89.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T19:22:28.825Z | 88.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T19:37:54.077Z | 89.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T19:53:18.532Z | 89.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T20:09:14.972Z | 89.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T20:19:45.589Z | 89.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T20:35:05.077Z | 90.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T20:51:02.822Z | 90.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T21:10:40.471Z | 91.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T21:29:59.428Z | 91.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T21:41:30.493Z | 90.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T21:57:48.738Z | 90.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T22:13:48.637Z | 91.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T22:29:09.061Z | 91.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T22:39:31.730Z | 91.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T06:52:30.910Z | 93.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T07:12:56.529Z | 93.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T07:30:07.497Z | 93.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T07:41:33.390Z | 93.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T07:57:31.264Z | 93.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T08:15:57.559Z | 93.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T08:33:08.579Z | 94.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T08:43:34.009Z | 94.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T08:59:09.763Z | 94.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T09:17:12.116Z | 94.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T09:33:11.458Z | 96.2% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T09:43:21.495Z | 97.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T09:58:48.139Z | 96.8% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T10:14:39.782Z | 96.9% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T10:19:15.268Z | 96.9% | - | — |
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.