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World · POLYMARKET · LIVE
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
Ends: Jul 31, 2026, 23:59 UTCMarket data: Jul 30, 2026, 10:19 UTC
VERDICTFAIR VALUE CALCULATING
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
POLYMARKET YES 96.9%MARX FAIR YES -
MARX FAIRFair Price is calculating. The line appears after data validation.
Jul 29, 10:21 AMJul 29, 04:21 PMJul 29, 10:20 PMJul 30, 04:20 AMJul 30, 10:20 AM UTC
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30T07:41:33.390Z | 93.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T07:47:02.942Z | 93.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T07:52:21.222Z | 93.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T07:57:31.264Z | 93.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T08:02:47.317Z | 93.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T08:10:39.467Z | 93.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T08:15:57.559Z | 93.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T08:22:42.339Z | 93.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T08:27:55.694Z | 94.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T08:33:08.579Z | 94.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T08:38:16.136Z | 94.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T08:43:34.009Z | 94.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T08:48:39.121Z | 94.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T08:53:57.588Z | 94.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T08:59:09.763Z | 94.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T09:04:51.816Z | 94.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T09:12:07.062Z | 94.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T09:17:12.116Z | 94.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T09:22:40.688Z | 94.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T09:27:58.703Z | 96.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T09:33:11.458Z | 96.2% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T09:38:16.816Z | 97.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T09:43:21.495Z | 97.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T09:48:33.603Z | 97.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T09:53:42.278Z | 97.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T09:58:48.139Z | 96.8% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T10:04:00.097Z | 96.9% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T10:09:29.533Z | 96.9% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T10:14:39.782Z | 96.9% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T10:20:00.318Z | 96.9% | - | — |
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.