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World · POLYMARKET · LIVE
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
Ends: Jul 31, 2026, 23:59 UTCMarket data: Jul 30, 2026, 09:42 UTC
VERDICTFAIR VALUE CALCULATING
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
POLYMARKET YES 97.0%MARX FAIR YES -
MARX FAIRFair Price is calculating. The line appears after data validation.
Jul 26, 08:41 AMJul 27, 08:56 AMJul 28, 09:12 AMJul 29, 09:27 AMJul 30, 09:42 AM UTC
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T17:43:17.328Z | 88.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T18:56:53.854Z | 89.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T19:12:08.024Z | 89.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T19:22:28.825Z | 88.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T19:37:54.077Z | 89.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T19:53:18.532Z | 89.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T20:03:28.345Z | 89.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T20:19:45.589Z | 89.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T20:35:05.077Z | 90.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T20:45:18.803Z | 90.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T21:01:24.251Z | 90.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T21:24:39.441Z | 91.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T21:41:30.493Z | 90.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T21:52:36.280Z | 90.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T22:08:43.548Z | 90.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T22:24:03.165Z | 91.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T22:34:24.239Z | 91.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T22:51:03.295Z | 91.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T07:02:45.707Z | 93.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T07:25:01.557Z | 93.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T07:36:01.134Z | 93.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T07:52:21.222Z | 93.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T08:10:39.467Z | 93.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T08:22:42.339Z | 93.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T08:38:16.136Z | 94.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T08:53:57.588Z | 94.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T09:12:07.062Z | 94.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T09:22:40.688Z | 94.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T09:38:16.816Z | 97.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T09:42:58.275Z | 97.0% | - | — |
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.