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Weather · POLYMARKET · LIVE

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on September 28?

Ends: Sep 28, 2026, 12:00 UTCMarket data: Sep 28, 2026, 16:23 UTC

VERDICTFAIR VALUE CALCULATING

POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR

Probability divergence over time

POLYMARKET YES 0.1%MARX FAIR YES -
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%
MARX FAIRFair Price is calculating. The line appears after data validation.
Sep 28, 05:43 AMSep 28, 08:23 AMSep 28, 11:03 AMSep 28, 01:43 PMSep 28, 04:23 PM UTC

YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-09-28T05:43:11.439Z0.1%-—
2026-09-28T16:23:20.480Z0.1%-—

MARKET TIMELINE

Events are placed when they became available to the system

0 events

No linked events in this range.

FAIR PRICE CALCULATION

  • Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
  • A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.

There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.

KEY RISKS

  • New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.

RESOLUTION CRITERIA

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.