Dota 2: Level UP vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner
Ends: Aug 9, 2026, 19:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 9, 2026, 16:00 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
LEVEL UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09T13:43:29.787Z | 85.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T13:48:36.751Z | 93.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T13:53:43.137Z | 93.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T13:58:54.541Z | 98.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T14:04:05.014Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T14:09:06.596Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T14:14:13.154Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T14:19:22.161Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T14:24:28.291Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T14:29:32.585Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T14:34:39.485Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T14:39:52.479Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T14:45:05.387Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T14:50:13.593Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T14:55:24.168Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T15:00:27.464Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T15:05:34.162Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T15:10:37.866Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T15:15:48.366Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T15:20:57.274Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T15:26:07.990Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T15:31:19.251Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T15:36:28.433Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T15:41:37.646Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T15:46:51.105Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T15:51:58.124Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T15:57:04.153Z | 100.0% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market refers to the Dota 2 Upper bracket quarterfinal 2 match between Level UP and MOUZ in the EPL Masters Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 9 at 8:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Level UP" if Level UP win Game 1 against MOUZ. This market will resolve to "MOUZ" if MOUZ win Game 1 against Level UP. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.