Bitcoin Up or Down on September 28?
Ends: Sep 28, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Sep 28, 2026, 16:14 UTCResult: DOWNResolved: Sep 28, 2026, 16:12 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28T12:15:32.259Z | 10.4% | 2.7% | -7.7 pp |
| 2026-09-28T12:20:17.175Z | 10.4% | 3.5% | -6.9 pp |
| 2026-09-28T12:21:52.066Z | 10.4% | 3.5% | -6.9 pp |
| 2026-09-28T12:25:25.105Z | 10.4% | 2.7% | -7.7 pp |
| 2026-09-28T12:30:09.324Z | 10.4% | 3.2% | -7.2 pp |
| 2026-09-28T12:50:04.205Z | 7.4% | 2.6% | -4.9 pp |
| 2026-09-28T12:50:59.544Z | 7.4% | 2.6% | -4.9 pp |
| 2026-09-28T12:57:22.918Z | 7.4% | 6.2% | -1.2 pp |
| 2026-09-28T13:01:54.307Z | 7.4% | 3.4% | -4.0 pp |
| 2026-09-28T13:04:50.284Z | 7.4% | 2.5% | -4.9 pp |
| 2026-09-28T13:08:48.240Z | 7.4% | 2.2% | -5.3 pp |
| 2026-09-28T13:10:57.798Z | 7.4% | 1.6% | -5.9 pp |
| 2026-09-28T13:14:50.073Z | 7.4% | 1.6% | -5.9 pp |
| 2026-09-28T13:46:58.635Z | 3.3% | 6.1% | +2.9 pp |
| 2026-09-28T14:07:50.289Z | 3.3% | 1.5% | -1.7 pp |
| 2026-09-28T14:14:18.531Z | 3.3% | 1.2% | -2.1 pp |
| 2026-09-28T14:18:23.191Z | 3.3% | 1.2% | -2.1 pp |
| 2026-09-28T14:23:48.731Z | 3.3% | 0.8% | -2.4 pp |
| 2026-09-28T14:32:15.442Z | 3.3% | 0.1% | -3.1 pp |
| 2026-09-28T14:42:05.772Z | 3.3% | 0.2% | -3.1 pp |
| 2026-09-28T15:10:18.784Z | 0.8% | 0.0% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-09-28T15:10:31.551Z | 0.8% | 0.0% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-09-28T15:17:13.888Z | 0.8% | 0.0% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-09-28T15:21:16.442Z | 0.8% | 0.0% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-09-28T15:24:45.625Z | 0.8% | 0.0% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-09-28T15:25:27.267Z | 0.8% | 0.0% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-09-28T15:30:48.807Z | 0.8% | 0.0% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-09-28T15:41:34.496Z | 0.8% | 0.0% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-09-28T15:50:26.213Z | 0.8% | 0.0% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-09-28T16:07:12.555Z | 0.8% | 0.0% | -0.7 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- No verified analysis was published before the market closed.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 04:07 PM | 0.8% | 0.0% | −0.7 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 28, 03:50 PM | 0.8% | 0.0% | −0.7 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 28, 03:41 PM | 0.8% | 0.0% | −0.7 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 28, 03:30 PM | 0.8% | 0.0% | −0.7 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 28, 03:25 PM | 0.8% | 0.0% | −0.7 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 28, 03:21 PM | 0.8% | 0.0% | −0.7 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 28, 03:17 PM | 0.8% | 0.0% | −0.7 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 28, 03:10 PM | 0.8% | 0.0% | −0.7 pp | NO EDGE |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 27 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Sep 28 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 27 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Sep 28 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.