Bitcoin Up or Down on September 28?
Ends: Sep 28, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Sep 28, 2026, 15:23 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28T11:08:31.714Z | 4.3% | 1.8% | -2.4 pp |
| 2026-09-28T11:14:12.622Z | 4.3% | 1.5% | -2.8 pp |
| 2026-09-28T11:22:53.429Z | 4.3% | 1.4% | -2.9 pp |
| 2026-09-28T11:26:36.857Z | 4.3% | 1.6% | -2.6 pp |
| 2026-09-28T11:39:12.170Z | 4.3% | 1.4% | -2.9 pp |
| 2026-09-28T12:05:33.749Z | 4.3% | 1.1% | -3.2 pp |
| 2026-09-28T12:11:05.171Z | 4.3% | 3.9% | -0.3 pp |
| 2026-09-28T12:15:35.139Z | 4.3% | 2.7% | -1.5 pp |
| 2026-09-28T12:21:21.369Z | 4.3% | 3.5% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-09-28T12:21:52.066Z | 4.3% | 3.5% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-09-28T12:29:59.285Z | 4.3% | 3.2% | -1.0 pp |
| 2026-09-28T12:45:21.674Z | 4.3% | 1.7% | -2.6 pp |
| 2026-09-28T12:50:23.385Z | 4.3% | 2.6% | -1.7 pp |
| 2026-09-28T12:53:59.797Z | 4.3% | 3.5% | -0.8 pp |
| 2026-09-28T12:57:34.279Z | 4.3% | 6.2% | +2.0 pp |
| 2026-09-28T13:04:48.368Z | 4.3% | 2.5% | -1.7 pp |
| 2026-09-28T13:06:55.776Z | 4.3% | 2.1% | -2.1 pp |
| 2026-09-28T13:08:48.240Z | 4.3% | 2.2% | -2.1 pp |
| 2026-09-28T13:10:57.798Z | 4.3% | 1.6% | -2.7 pp |
| 2026-09-28T13:46:58.635Z | 0.8% | 6.1% | +5.4 pp |
| 2026-09-28T14:07:50.289Z | 0.8% | 1.5% | +0.8 pp |
| 2026-09-28T14:14:18.531Z | 0.8% | 1.2% | +0.4 pp |
| 2026-09-28T14:23:48.731Z | 0.8% | 0.8% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-09-28T14:32:15.442Z | 0.8% | 0.1% | -0.6 pp |
| 2026-09-28T14:42:05.772Z | 0.8% | 0.2% | -0.6 pp |
| 2026-09-28T15:04:49.344Z | 0.8% | 0.0% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-09-28T15:10:31.551Z | 0.8% | 0.0% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-09-28T15:17:13.888Z | 0.8% | 0.0% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-09-28T15:21:16.442Z | 0.8% | 0.0% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-09-28T15:23:45.411Z | 0.8% | 0.0% | -0.7 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 03:21 PM | 4.3% | 0.0% | −4.2 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Sep 28, 03:17 PM | 4.3% | 0.0% | −4.2 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Sep 28, 03:10 PM | 4.3% | 0.0% | −4.2 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Sep 28, 03:04 PM | 4.3% | 0.0% | −4.2 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Sep 28, 02:42 PM | 4.3% | 0.2% | −4.1 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Sep 28, 02:32 PM | 4.3% | 0.1% | −4.1 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Sep 28, 02:23 PM | 4.3% | 0.8% | −3.4 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Sep 28, 02:14 PM | 4.3% | 1.2% | −3.1 pp | BUY DOWN |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 27 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Sep 28 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 27 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Sep 28 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.