Valorant: Team Heretics vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner
Ends: Aug 12, 2026, 23:30 UTCMarket data: Aug 12, 2026, 20:30 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
TEAM HERETICS probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12T17:59:25.108Z | 41.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-12T18:04:26.483Z | 64.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-12T18:14:41.229Z | 53.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-12T18:24:51.308Z | 74.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-12T18:35:01.327Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-12T18:40:11.319Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-12T18:50:26.326Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-12T19:00:41.523Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-12T19:10:51.295Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-12T19:21:06.177Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-12T19:26:23.977Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-12T19:36:31.905Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-12T19:47:07.047Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-12T19:57:15.140Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-12T20:02:16.702Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-12T20:12:25.153Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-12T20:22:32.701Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-12T20:32:43.235Z | 100.0% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market refers to the Valorant Lower bracket round 1 match between Team Heretics and Natus Vincere in the VCT EMEA Play-Ins, initially scheduled for August 12 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Heretics" if Team Heretics win Map 1 against Natus Vincere. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win Map 1 against Team Heretics. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 1. If Map 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://vlr.gg. However, if https://vlr.gg has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.