Dota 2: Team Falcons vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner
Ends: Aug 13, 2026, 09:05 UTCMarket data: Aug 13, 2026, 05:55 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
TEAM FALCONS probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13T02:31:37.035Z | 75.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T02:41:52.404Z | 73.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T02:48:08.150Z | 75.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T02:59:10.627Z | 73.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T03:09:34.200Z | 74.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T03:16:04.537Z | 71.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T03:26:25.724Z | 74.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T03:36:45.117Z | 68.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T03:41:50.210Z | 74.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T03:53:31.470Z | 48.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T03:59:50.009Z | 8.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T04:10:00.495Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T04:20:10.711Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T04:30:34.642Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T04:40:47.140Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T04:45:53.871Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T04:56:02.834Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T05:06:12.336Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T05:16:32.914Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T05:21:38.320Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T05:32:27.088Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T05:42:37.402Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T05:52:46.946Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T05:55:45.008Z | 0.1% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 1 match between Team Falcons and LGD Gaming in the The International Group Stage, initially scheduled for August 12 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Falcons" if Team Falcons win Game 1 against LGD Gaming. This market will resolve to "LGD Gaming" if LGD Gaming win Game 1 against Team Falcons. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.