Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Ends: Oct 28, 2026, 23:59 UTCMarket data: Aug 8, 2026, 09:45 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08T08:49:47.412Z | 1.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T08:54:56.921Z | 1.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T09:00:09.947Z | 1.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T09:05:15.021Z | 1.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T09:10:20.833Z | 1.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T09:15:30.157Z | 1.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T09:20:34.292Z | 1.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T09:25:40.280Z | 1.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T09:30:45.169Z | 1.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T09:35:53.590Z | 1.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T09:41:00.957Z | 1.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T09:45:20.381Z | 1.5% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
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