Bitcoin Up or Down on August 15?
Ends: Aug 15, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 14, 2026, 21:56 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14T21:07:30.357Z | 42.5% | 45.1% | +2.6 pp |
| 2026-08-14T21:07:30.614Z | 42.5% | 45.1% | +2.6 pp |
| 2026-08-14T21:09:05.601Z | 42.5% | 45.1% | +2.6 pp |
| 2026-08-14T21:09:31.048Z | 42.5% | 45.2% | +2.7 pp |
| 2026-08-14T21:09:31.712Z | 42.5% | 45.2% | +2.7 pp |
| 2026-08-14T21:11:15.545Z | 42.5% | 45.2% | +2.7 pp |
| 2026-08-14T21:11:35.277Z | 42.5% | 43.6% | +1.1 pp |
| 2026-08-14T21:16:15.009Z | 42.5% | 43.8% | +1.3 pp |
| 2026-08-14T21:18:27.075Z | 42.5% | 44.3% | +1.8 pp |
| 2026-08-14T21:20:25.754Z | 42.5% | 43.7% | +1.2 pp |
| 2026-08-14T21:20:26.568Z | 42.5% | 43.7% | +1.2 pp |
| 2026-08-14T21:20:45.366Z | 42.5% | 43.7% | +1.2 pp |
| 2026-08-14T21:22:15.279Z | 42.5% | 43.7% | +1.2 pp |
| 2026-08-14T21:22:26.712Z | 42.5% | 42.8% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-14T21:24:50.089Z | 42.5% | 43.4% | +0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-14T21:25:07.057Z | 42.5% | 43.4% | +0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-14T21:25:25.977Z | 42.5% | 43.4% | +0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-14T21:25:43.445Z | 42.5% | 43.4% | +0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-14T21:28:41.187Z | 42.5% | 43.7% | +1.2 pp |
| 2026-08-14T21:33:40.460Z | 42.5% | 42.8% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-14T21:36:30.392Z | 42.5% | 41.8% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-14T21:38:24.912Z | 42.5% | 41.8% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-14T21:38:25.248Z | 42.5% | 41.8% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-14T21:40:36.782Z | 42.5% | 42.7% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-14T21:40:38.310Z | 42.5% | 42.7% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-14T21:47:35.051Z | 42.5% | 42.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-14T21:50:31.585Z | 42.5% | 44.3% | +1.8 pp |
| 2026-08-14T21:52:32.433Z | 42.5% | 44.4% | +1.9 pp |
| 2026-08-14T21:54:29.519Z | 42.5% | 42.6% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-14T21:56:06.447Z | 42.5% | 42.6% | +0.1 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 09:54 PM | 64.5% | 42.6% | −22 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 14, 09:52 PM | 64.5% | 44.4% | −20 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 14, 09:50 PM | 64.5% | 44.3% | −20 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 14, 09:47 PM | 64.5% | 42.5% | −22 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 14, 09:40 PM | 64.5% | 42.7% | −22 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 14, 09:40 PM | 64.5% | 42.7% | −22 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 14, 09:38 PM | 64.5% | 41.8% | −23 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 14, 09:38 PM | 64.5% | 41.8% | −23 pp | BUY DOWN |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 14 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 15 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 14 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 15 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.