Bitcoin Up or Down on August 15?
Ends: Aug 15, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 14, 2026, 21:11 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14T20:04:43.160Z | 45.5% | 49.3% | +3.8 pp |
| 2026-08-14T20:05:33.850Z | 45.5% | 49.3% | +3.8 pp |
| 2026-08-14T20:07:45.513Z | 45.5% | 50.2% | +4.7 pp |
| 2026-08-14T20:10:44.245Z | 45.5% | 49.9% | +4.4 pp |
| 2026-08-14T20:14:37.600Z | 45.5% | 50.8% | +5.3 pp |
| 2026-08-14T20:17:39.504Z | 45.5% | 47.7% | +2.2 pp |
| 2026-08-14T20:20:34.083Z | 45.5% | 45.8% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-14T20:22:30.729Z | 45.5% | 46.7% | +1.2 pp |
| 2026-08-14T20:22:31.168Z | 45.5% | 46.7% | +1.2 pp |
| 2026-08-14T20:24:39.684Z | 45.5% | 48.1% | +2.6 pp |
| 2026-08-14T20:27:45.357Z | 45.5% | 46.4% | +0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-14T20:32:34.772Z | 45.5% | 46.8% | +1.3 pp |
| 2026-08-14T20:34:41.143Z | 45.5% | 45.7% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-14T20:37:40.557Z | 45.5% | 44.9% | -0.6 pp |
| 2026-08-14T20:40:38.057Z | 45.5% | 44.4% | -1.1 pp |
| 2026-08-14T20:48:41.971Z | 45.5% | 44.4% | -1.1 pp |
| 2026-08-14T20:51:34.929Z | 45.5% | 45.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-14T20:53:35.598Z | 45.5% | 44.8% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-14T20:53:35.952Z | 45.5% | 44.8% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-14T20:55:37.604Z | 45.5% | 44.4% | -1.1 pp |
| 2026-08-14T20:55:38.339Z | 45.5% | 44.4% | -1.1 pp |
| 2026-08-14T21:02:39.228Z | 45.5% | 45.4% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-14T21:05:35.866Z | 45.5% | 45.1% | -0.4 pp |
| 2026-08-14T21:05:36.649Z | 45.5% | 45.1% | -0.4 pp |
| 2026-08-14T21:07:30.357Z | 45.5% | 45.1% | -0.4 pp |
| 2026-08-14T21:07:30.614Z | 45.5% | 45.1% | -0.4 pp |
| 2026-08-14T21:09:05.601Z | 45.5% | 45.1% | -0.4 pp |
| 2026-08-14T21:09:31.048Z | 45.5% | 45.2% | -0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-14T21:09:31.712Z | 45.5% | 45.2% | -0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-14T21:11:46.341Z | 45.5% | 45.2% | -0.3 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 09:09 PM | 63.5% | 45.2% | −18 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 14, 09:09 PM | 63.5% | 45.2% | −18 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 14, 09:09 PM | 63.5% | 45.1% | −18 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 14, 09:07 PM | 63.5% | 45.1% | −18 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 14, 09:07 PM | 63.5% | 45.1% | −18 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 14, 09:05 PM | 63.5% | 45.1% | −18 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 14, 09:05 PM | 63.5% | 45.1% | −18 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 14, 09:02 PM | 63.5% | 45.4% | −18 pp | BUY DOWN |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 14 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 15 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 14 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 15 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.