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World · POLYMARKET · LIVE

Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?

Ends: Aug 31, 2026, 23:59 UTCMarket data: Aug 19, 2026, 13:36 UTC

VERDICTINSUFFICIENT DATA

POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR

Probability divergence over time

POLYMARKET YES 99.8%MARX FAIR YES -
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair0%25%50%75%100%
MARX FAIRFair Price was not published: reliable data is insufficient.
Aug 19, 07:44 AMAug 19, 09:12 AMAug 19, 10:40 AMAug 19, 12:08 PMAug 19, 01:36 PM UTC

YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-19T11:00:39.584Z22.5%-
2026-08-19T11:05:56.361Z91.5%-
2026-08-19T11:11:19.820Z91.5%-
2026-08-19T11:16:25.830Z89.0%-
2026-08-19T11:21:37.624Z89.0%-
2026-08-19T11:26:42.856Z91.5%-
2026-08-19T11:31:47.472Z91.5%-
2026-08-19T11:36:58.015Z92.0%-
2026-08-19T11:42:14.992Z92.5%-
2026-08-19T11:47:20.570Z93.0%-
2026-08-19T11:52:24.732Z96.0%-
2026-08-19T11:58:14.417Z97.0%-
2026-08-19T12:03:20.473Z98.0%-
2026-08-19T12:08:30.946Z97.8%-
2026-08-19T12:13:38.482Z98.0%-
2026-08-19T12:18:44.317Z97.0%-
2026-08-19T12:23:57.747Z97.0%-
2026-08-19T12:29:09.452Z97.6%-
2026-08-19T12:34:21.980Z97.6%-
2026-08-19T12:39:28.793Z97.4%-
2026-08-19T12:50:50.562Z98.1%-
2026-08-19T12:55:54.673Z98.6%-
2026-08-19T13:01:00.197Z98.9%-
2026-08-19T13:06:09.226Z99.3%-
2026-08-19T13:11:22.253Z99.2%-
2026-08-19T13:16:29.706Z99.7%-
2026-08-19T13:21:39.501Z99.7%-
2026-08-19T13:28:36.550Z99.7%-
2026-08-19T13:33:46.751Z99.8%-
2026-08-19T13:36:17.884Z99.8%-

MARKET TIMELINE

Events are placed when they became available to the system

0 events

No linked events in this range.

INSUFFICIENT DATA

  • No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
  • Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
  • A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.

There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.

KEY RISKS

  • New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.

RESOLUTION CRITERIA

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting.

AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.