Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Ends: Dec 31, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 28, 2026, 12:38 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T08:24:17.221Z | 3.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T08:34:27.477Z | 3.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T08:44:37.499Z | 3.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T08:54:47.355Z | 3.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T08:59:52.204Z | 3.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T09:10:02.180Z | 3.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T09:20:07.204Z | 3.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T09:30:17.139Z | 3.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T09:35:22.587Z | 3.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T09:45:37.505Z | 3.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T09:55:52.401Z | 3.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:00:57.414Z | 3.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:11:12.634Z | 3.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:21:22.895Z | 3.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:31:32.649Z | 3.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:36:35.784Z | 3.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:46:57.418Z | 3.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:57:08.641Z | 3.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:07:17.673Z | 3.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:12:22.547Z | 3.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:22:32.895Z | 3.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:32:42.568Z | 3.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:42:57.578Z | 3.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:48:03.164Z | 3.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:58:08.065Z | 3.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:08:21.896Z | 3.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:18:33.263Z | 3.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:24:11.045Z | 3.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:34:26.952Z | 3.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:38:57.039Z | 3.3% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic. The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.