Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends: Jan 1, 2027, 05:00 UTCMarket data: Oct 29, 2026, 17:50 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26T15:54:25.390Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-09-26T23:49:54.561Z | 50.5% | 51.6% | +1.1 pp |
| 2026-09-27T05:38:47.204Z | 50.5% | 51.8% | +1.3 pp |
| 2026-09-27T12:38:35.591Z | 50.5% | 53.8% | +3.3 pp |
| 2026-09-27T14:41:09.297Z | 50.5% | 53.8% | +3.3 pp |
| 2026-09-27T20:43:24.955Z | 50.5% | 52.2% | +1.7 pp |
| 2026-09-28T02:38:52.194Z | 50.5% | 47.7% | -2.8 pp |
| 2026-09-28T09:40:55.524Z | 50.5% | 43.9% | -6.6 pp |
| 2026-09-28T23:58:47.133Z | 49.0% | 47.9% | -1.1 pp |
| 2026-09-29T04:53:28.471Z | 49.0% | 46.1% | -2.9 pp |
| 2026-09-29T17:46:13.569Z | 49.0% | 45.0% | -4.0 pp |
| 2026-09-29T21:59:23.194Z | 49.0% | 47.2% | -1.8 pp |
| 2026-09-29T23:54:04.062Z | 49.0% | 47.2% | -1.8 pp |
| 2026-09-30T15:58:21.083Z | 49.0% | 50.8% | +1.8 pp |
| 2026-10-01T04:57:08.572Z | 58.0% | 50.3% | -7.7 pp |
| 2026-10-02T03:59:41.623Z | 58.0% | 56.7% | -1.3 pp |
| 2026-10-02T04:50:55.681Z | 58.0% | 56.7% | -1.3 pp |
| 2026-10-04T11:54:41.598Z | 53.5% | 52.3% | -1.2 pp |
| 2026-10-04T15:48:51.934Z | 53.5% | 52.3% | -1.2 pp |
| 2026-10-06T19:46:19.725Z | 54.5% | 52.3% | -2.2 pp |
| 2026-10-09T02:51:35.299Z | 38.5% | 52.3% | +13.8 pp |
| 2026-10-11T09:56:42.702Z | 39.5% | 52.3% | +12.8 pp |
| 2026-10-13T16:54:42.837Z | 42.5% | 52.3% | +9.8 pp |
| 2026-10-15T23:56:26.745Z | 38.5% | 52.3% | +13.8 pp |
| 2026-10-18T07:56:06.488Z | 34.5% | 52.3% | +17.8 pp |
| 2026-10-20T13:47:30.801Z | 35.5% | 52.3% | +16.8 pp |
| 2026-10-22T20:55:11.474Z | 33.5% | 52.3% | +18.8 pp |
| 2026-10-25T03:58:43.321Z | 30.5% | 52.3% | +21.8 pp |
| 2026-10-27T10:56:45.176Z | 23.5% | 52.3% | +28.8 pp |
| 2026-10-29T17:50:25.473Z | 25.5% | 52.3% | +26.8 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 04, 03:48 PM | 53.5% | 52.3% | −1.2 pp | NO EDGE |
| Oct 02, 03:59 AM | 58.0% | 56.7% | −1.3 pp | NO EDGE |
| Oct 01, 04:57 AM | 58.0% | 50.3% | −7.7 pp | BUY NO |
| Sep 30, 03:58 PM | 49.0% | 50.8% | +1.8 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 29, 11:54 PM | 49.0% | 47.2% | −1.8 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 29, 05:46 PM | 49.0% | 45.0% | −4.0 pp | BUY NO |
| Sep 29, 04:53 AM | 49.0% | 46.1% | −2.9 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 28, 11:58 PM | 49.0% | 47.9% | −1.1 pp | NO EDGE |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the year specified in the title has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No”. Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.