UFC 331: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card)
Ends: Sep 20, 2026, 03:59 UTCMarket data: Sep 19, 2026, 19:37 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
ARMAN TSARUKYAN probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19T18:39:48.091Z | 73.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-19T18:45:37.401Z | 73.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-19T18:50:44.643Z | 73.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-19T18:55:47.104Z | 73.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-19T19:01:11.991Z | 73.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-19T19:06:20.945Z | 73.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-19T19:11:24.474Z | 73.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-19T19:16:38.789Z | 73.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-19T19:21:47.247Z | 73.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-19T19:27:29.558Z | 73.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-19T19:34:21.366Z | 73.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-19T19:37:57.807Z | 73.5% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Arman Tsarukyan" if Arman Tsarukyan is officially declared the winner of the fight against Mauricio Ruffy at UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2, scheduled for September 19, 2026. It will resolve to "Mauricio Ruffy" if Mauricio Ruffy is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 3, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.