Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia before 2027?
Ends: Dec 31, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 18, 2026, 01:15 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17T22:35:54.312Z | 0.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T22:40:59.963Z | 0.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T22:46:03.759Z | 0.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T22:51:08.907Z | 0.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T22:56:14.635Z | 0.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T23:01:24.120Z | 0.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T23:06:26.051Z | 0.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T23:11:32.028Z | 0.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T23:21:19.430Z | 0.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T23:26:27.113Z | 0.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T23:31:31.055Z | 0.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T23:36:45.883Z | 0.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T23:42:17.449Z | 0.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T23:47:21.373Z | 0.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T23:52:25.320Z | 0.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T00:00:32.435Z | 0.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T00:05:35.288Z | 0.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T00:10:48.780Z | 0.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T00:16:37.660Z | 0.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T00:22:13.201Z | 0.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T00:27:22.185Z | 0.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T00:32:26.374Z | 0.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T00:37:31.784Z | 0.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T00:46:01.901Z | 0.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T00:51:06.679Z | 0.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T00:56:16.825Z | 0.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T01:01:27.208Z | 0.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T01:06:31.001Z | 0.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T01:13:48.254Z | 0.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T01:15:52.017Z | 0.3% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no meeting takes place by December 31 ET, this market will resolve to "No meeting before 2027". A meeting is defined as any encounter where Zelenskyy and Putin are both present and interact with each other in person. For the purpose of this market, a meeting held on Ukrainian territory under the de facto control of Russia (e.g., Crimea) will be considered part of Russia. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.