Bitcoin Up or Down on August 19?
Ends: Aug 19, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 18, 2026, 22:28 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18T21:36:37.605Z | 32.5% | 30.7% | -1.8 pp |
| 2026-08-18T21:36:38.348Z | 32.5% | 30.7% | -1.8 pp |
| 2026-08-18T21:38:37.283Z | 32.5% | 30.7% | -1.8 pp |
| 2026-08-18T21:38:37.744Z | 32.5% | 30.7% | -1.8 pp |
| 2026-08-18T21:43:26.492Z | 32.5% | 29.7% | -2.8 pp |
| 2026-08-18T21:45:38.944Z | 32.5% | 28.8% | -3.7 pp |
| 2026-08-18T21:47:37.091Z | 32.5% | 30.4% | -2.1 pp |
| 2026-08-18T21:49:38.157Z | 32.5% | 30.3% | -2.2 pp |
| 2026-08-18T21:49:38.283Z | 32.5% | 30.3% | -2.2 pp |
| 2026-08-18T21:51:38.350Z | 32.5% | 31.0% | -1.5 pp |
| 2026-08-18T21:51:38.965Z | 32.5% | 31.0% | -1.5 pp |
| 2026-08-18T21:53:38.899Z | 32.5% | 31.0% | -1.5 pp |
| 2026-08-18T21:53:39.459Z | 32.5% | 31.0% | -1.5 pp |
| 2026-08-18T21:56:51.453Z | 32.5% | 30.2% | -2.3 pp |
| 2026-08-18T21:58:36.814Z | 32.5% | 29.0% | -3.5 pp |
| 2026-08-18T22:00:43.454Z | 32.5% | 30.5% | -2.0 pp |
| 2026-08-18T22:02:38.241Z | 32.5% | 29.1% | -3.4 pp |
| 2026-08-18T22:04:38.750Z | 32.5% | 29.6% | -2.9 pp |
| 2026-08-18T22:06:38.259Z | 32.5% | 28.1% | -4.4 pp |
| 2026-08-18T22:08:36.612Z | 32.5% | 28.6% | -3.9 pp |
| 2026-08-18T22:08:36.982Z | 32.5% | 28.6% | -3.9 pp |
| 2026-08-18T22:10:56.799Z | 32.5% | 28.7% | -3.8 pp |
| 2026-08-18T22:15:27.423Z | 32.5% | 29.4% | -3.1 pp |
| 2026-08-18T22:17:37.452Z | 32.5% | 28.0% | -4.5 pp |
| 2026-08-18T22:19:37.797Z | 32.5% | 28.3% | -4.2 pp |
| 2026-08-18T22:20:27.172Z | 32.5% | 28.3% | -4.2 pp |
| 2026-08-18T22:21:41.294Z | 32.5% | 28.9% | -3.6 pp |
| 2026-08-18T22:23:42.280Z | 32.5% | 30.1% | -2.4 pp |
| 2026-08-18T22:25:41.555Z | 32.5% | 29.8% | -2.7 pp |
| 2026-08-18T22:28:49.765Z | 32.5% | 29.8% | -2.7 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 10:25 PM | 41.5% | 29.8% | −12 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 18, 10:23 PM | 41.5% | 30.1% | −11 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 18, 10:21 PM | 41.5% | 28.9% | −13 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 18, 10:20 PM | 41.5% | 28.3% | −13 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 18, 10:19 PM | 41.5% | 28.3% | −13 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 18, 10:17 PM | 41.5% | 28.0% | −14 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 18, 10:15 PM | 41.5% | 29.4% | −12 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 18, 10:10 PM | 41.5% | 28.7% | −13 pp | BUY DOWN |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 18 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 19 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 18 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 19 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.