Bitcoin Up or Down on August 19?
Ends: Aug 19, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 18, 2026, 21:59 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18T21:09:35.406Z | 33.5% | 31.4% | -2.1 pp |
| 2026-08-18T21:12:56.039Z | 33.5% | 32.4% | -1.1 pp |
| 2026-08-18T21:15:38.764Z | 33.5% | 33.7% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-18T21:17:37.411Z | 33.5% | 32.0% | -1.5 pp |
| 2026-08-18T21:19:38.334Z | 33.5% | 31.2% | -2.3 pp |
| 2026-08-18T21:21:37.516Z | 33.5% | 31.0% | -2.5 pp |
| 2026-08-18T21:21:38.884Z | 33.5% | 31.0% | -2.5 pp |
| 2026-08-18T21:23:38.525Z | 33.5% | 31.2% | -2.3 pp |
| 2026-08-18T21:26:35.394Z | 33.5% | 31.2% | -2.3 pp |
| 2026-08-18T21:28:41.240Z | 33.5% | 32.0% | -1.5 pp |
| 2026-08-18T21:28:41.728Z | 33.5% | 32.0% | -1.5 pp |
| 2026-08-18T21:30:40.296Z | 33.5% | 32.0% | -1.5 pp |
| 2026-08-18T21:32:42.077Z | 33.5% | 31.4% | -2.1 pp |
| 2026-08-18T21:34:41.938Z | 33.5% | 31.2% | -2.3 pp |
| 2026-08-18T21:34:42.191Z | 33.5% | 31.2% | -2.3 pp |
| 2026-08-18T21:36:37.605Z | 33.5% | 30.7% | -2.8 pp |
| 2026-08-18T21:36:38.348Z | 33.5% | 30.7% | -2.8 pp |
| 2026-08-18T21:38:37.283Z | 33.5% | 30.7% | -2.8 pp |
| 2026-08-18T21:38:37.744Z | 33.5% | 30.7% | -2.8 pp |
| 2026-08-18T21:43:26.492Z | 33.5% | 29.7% | -3.8 pp |
| 2026-08-18T21:45:38.944Z | 33.5% | 28.8% | -4.7 pp |
| 2026-08-18T21:47:37.091Z | 33.5% | 30.4% | -3.1 pp |
| 2026-08-18T21:49:38.157Z | 33.5% | 30.3% | -3.2 pp |
| 2026-08-18T21:49:38.283Z | 33.5% | 30.3% | -3.2 pp |
| 2026-08-18T21:51:38.350Z | 33.5% | 31.0% | -2.5 pp |
| 2026-08-18T21:51:38.965Z | 33.5% | 31.0% | -2.5 pp |
| 2026-08-18T21:53:38.899Z | 33.5% | 31.0% | -2.5 pp |
| 2026-08-18T21:53:39.459Z | 33.5% | 31.0% | -2.5 pp |
| 2026-08-18T21:56:51.453Z | 33.5% | 30.2% | -3.3 pp |
| 2026-08-18T21:59:14.735Z | 33.5% | 30.2% | -3.3 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 09:56 PM | 44.5% | 30.2% | −14 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 18, 09:53 PM | 44.5% | 31.0% | −13 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 18, 09:53 PM | 44.5% | 31.0% | −13 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 18, 09:51 PM | 44.5% | 31.0% | −14 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 18, 09:51 PM | 44.5% | 31.0% | −14 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 18, 09:49 PM | 44.5% | 30.3% | −14 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 18, 09:49 PM | 44.5% | 30.3% | −14 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 18, 09:47 PM | 44.5% | 30.4% | −14 pp | BUY DOWN |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 18 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 19 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 18 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 19 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.