Market Analysis
Back to markets
Tech & AI · POLYMARKET · LIVE

Trump renames AI by September 30?

Ends: Oct 1, 2026, 03:59 UTCMarket data: Sep 28, 2026, 16:23 UTC

VERDICTFAIR VALUE CALCULATING

POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR

Probability divergence over time

POLYMARKET YES 27.5%MARX FAIR YES -
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair0%13%25%38%50%
MARX FAIRFair Price is calculating. The line appears after data validation.
Sep 28, 03:28 PMSep 28, 03:42 PMSep 28, 03:56 PMSep 28, 04:09 PMSep 28, 04:23 PM UTC

YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-09-28T15:28:33.880Z30.5%-—
2026-09-28T15:33:47.018Z29.5%-—
2026-09-28T15:39:17.286Z29.5%-—
2026-09-28T15:45:09.196Z30.5%-—
2026-09-28T15:50:18.263Z30.5%-—
2026-09-28T16:06:49.008Z30.0%-—
2026-09-28T16:12:09.182Z30.5%-—
2026-09-28T16:17:19.141Z30.5%-—
2026-09-28T16:23:17.807Z27.5%-—
2026-09-28T16:23:41.451Z27.5%-—

MARKET TIMELINE

Events are placed when they became available to the system

0 events

No linked events in this range.

FAIR PRICE CALCULATION

  • Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
  • A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.

There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.

KEY RISKS

  • New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.

RESOLUTION CRITERIA

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs an executive order, proclamation, or presidential memorandum that adopts a new official name for artificial intelligence, or directs a federal agency or the federal government to adopt one, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying action must replace or supersede "artificial intelligence" as the federal government's designation for the technology itself. Any replacement name qualifies, including "Superior Intelligence", "Extreme Intelligence", "Supreme Intelligence", or "Genius Intelligence"; the name chosen has no bearing on resolution. An order that directs an agency to adopt or implement such a name within a stated period qualifies. Statements, speeches, interviews, press conferences, and social media posts, including polls posted to social media, do not count. Renaming a federal office, agency, program, task force, commission, or military service, such as an "AI Force", does not count unless the same action also renames the technology itself. Renaming a specific product, model, or private-sector system does not count. Incidental use of an alternative term in the text of an order, without a directive adopting it as the official designation, does not count. The signing or issuance of a qualifying order within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the order takes effect, and regardless of whether it is subsequently stayed, enjoined, revoked, or superseded. The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, including the text of presidential actions published at whitehouse.gov and in the Federal Register; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.