Bitcoin Up or Down on August 7?
Ends: Aug 7, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 7, 2026, 03:36 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07T02:53:43.581Z | 39.5% | 39.3% | -0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-07T02:55:59.900Z | 38.5% | 39.4% | +0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-07T02:57:27.317Z | 38.5% | 39.4% | +0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-07T03:01:10.003Z | 35.5% | 37.1% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-07T03:01:41.349Z | 35.5% | 37.1% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-07T03:01:41.943Z | 35.5% | 37.1% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-07T03:03:40.298Z | 35.5% | 33.5% | -2.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T03:05:44.958Z | 35.5% | 34.8% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-07T03:06:13.720Z | 35.5% | 34.8% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-07T03:07:40.627Z | 35.5% | 35.1% | -0.4 pp |
| 2026-08-07T03:08:15.610Z | 35.5% | 35.1% | -0.4 pp |
| 2026-08-07T03:09:41.558Z | 37.5% | 36.2% | -1.3 pp |
| 2026-08-07T03:10:10.399Z | 37.5% | 36.2% | -1.3 pp |
| 2026-08-07T03:12:51.325Z | 35.5% | 36.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T03:13:11.137Z | 35.5% | 36.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T03:14:10.118Z | 35.5% | 36.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T03:15:41.644Z | 35.5% | 33.4% | -2.1 pp |
| 2026-08-07T03:17:42.212Z | 35.5% | 33.4% | -2.1 pp |
| 2026-08-07T03:19:44.972Z | 32.0% | 33.4% | +1.4 pp |
| 2026-08-07T03:21:19.749Z | 32.0% | 32.1% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-07T03:21:42.719Z | 32.0% | 32.1% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-07T03:23:42.873Z | 32.0% | 32.4% | +0.4 pp |
| 2026-08-07T03:25:55.052Z | 32.0% | 31.1% | -0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-07T03:26:10.874Z | 32.0% | 31.1% | -0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-07T03:28:01.053Z | 33.5% | 34.1% | +0.6 pp |
| 2026-08-07T03:29:32.835Z | 33.5% | 34.1% | +0.6 pp |
| 2026-08-07T03:32:10.590Z | 35.5% | 35.4% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-07T03:33:54.709Z | 35.5% | 35.4% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-07T03:33:55.896Z | 35.5% | 35.4% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-07T03:36:13.867Z | 35.5% | 35.4% | -0.1 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 07, 03:33 AM | 35.5% | 35.4% | −0.1 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 07, 03:33 AM | 35.5% | 35.4% | −0.1 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 07, 03:29 AM | 33.5% | 34.1% | +0.6 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 07, 03:25 AM | 32.0% | 31.1% | −0.9 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 07, 03:23 AM | 32.0% | 32.4% | +0.4 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 07, 03:21 AM | 32.0% | 32.1% | +0.1 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 07, 03:19 AM | 32.0% | 33.4% | +1.4 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 07, 03:17 AM | 35.5% | 33.4% | −2.1 pp | NO EDGE |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 6 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 7 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 6 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 7 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.