Bitcoin Up or Down on August 7?
Ends: Aug 7, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 7, 2026, 02:58 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07T01:05:33.674Z | 39.5% | 38.6% | -0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-07T01:06:37.558Z | 39.5% | 38.7% | -0.8 pp |
| 2026-08-07T01:08:41.845Z | 39.5% | 38.1% | -1.4 pp |
| 2026-08-07T01:16:45.862Z | 39.5% | 35.6% | -3.9 pp |
| 2026-08-07T01:18:44.716Z | 39.5% | 35.3% | -4.2 pp |
| 2026-08-07T01:24:39.445Z | 39.5% | 35.3% | -4.2 pp |
| 2026-08-07T01:26:47.015Z | 39.5% | 35.7% | -3.8 pp |
| 2026-08-07T01:32:43.430Z | 39.5% | 39.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T01:34:44.776Z | 39.5% | 41.2% | +1.7 pp |
| 2026-08-07T01:38:35.767Z | 39.5% | 39.7% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-07T01:45:27.162Z | 39.5% | 36.4% | -3.1 pp |
| 2026-08-07T01:49:36.228Z | 39.5% | 37.3% | -2.2 pp |
| 2026-08-07T01:53:35.858Z | 39.5% | 39.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T01:55:43.360Z | 39.5% | 38.1% | -1.4 pp |
| 2026-08-07T02:00:42.043Z | 39.5% | 38.8% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-07T02:04:40.161Z | 39.5% | 38.0% | -1.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T02:06:45.396Z | 39.5% | 38.1% | -1.4 pp |
| 2026-08-07T02:15:05.710Z | 39.5% | 36.2% | -3.3 pp |
| 2026-08-07T02:17:43.200Z | 39.5% | 43.8% | +4.3 pp |
| 2026-08-07T02:19:52.776Z | 39.5% | 42.2% | +2.7 pp |
| 2026-08-07T02:23:40.799Z | 39.5% | 34.1% | -5.4 pp |
| 2026-08-07T02:26:49.846Z | 39.5% | 34.2% | -5.3 pp |
| 2026-08-07T02:32:39.169Z | 39.5% | 33.8% | -5.7 pp |
| 2026-08-07T02:34:45.147Z | 39.5% | 34.2% | -5.3 pp |
| 2026-08-07T02:38:34.861Z | 39.5% | 35.6% | -3.9 pp |
| 2026-08-07T02:47:41.882Z | 39.5% | 38.6% | -0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-07T02:49:41.322Z | 39.5% | 38.9% | -0.6 pp |
| 2026-08-07T02:53:43.217Z | 39.5% | 39.3% | -0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-07T02:55:59.900Z | 39.5% | 39.4% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-07T02:58:14.732Z | 39.5% | 39.4% | -0.1 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 07, 02:55 AM | 36.5% | 39.4% | +2.9 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 07, 02:53 AM | 36.5% | 39.3% | +2.8 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 07, 02:49 AM | 36.5% | 38.9% | +2.4 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 07, 02:47 AM | 36.5% | 38.6% | +2.1 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 07, 02:38 AM | 36.5% | 35.6% | −0.9 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 07, 02:34 AM | 36.5% | 34.2% | −2.3 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 07, 02:32 AM | 36.5% | 33.8% | −2.7 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 07, 02:26 AM | 36.5% | 34.2% | −2.3 pp | NO EDGE |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 6 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 7 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 6 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 7 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.