Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
Ends: Dec 31, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 10, 2026, 02:50 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10T01:54:58.699Z | 5.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T02:00:04.267Z | 5.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T02:05:14.399Z | 5.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T02:10:21.509Z | 5.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T02:15:28.777Z | 5.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T02:20:31.947Z | 5.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T02:25:59.635Z | 5.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T02:31:07.670Z | 5.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T02:36:17.531Z | 5.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T02:41:33.820Z | 5.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T02:46:39.400Z | 5.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T02:50:50.780Z | 5.5% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.