Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on August 4?
Ends: Aug 5, 2026, 04:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 5, 2026, 02:07 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04T22:10:31.155Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:24:30.233Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:32:34.841Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:45:31.246Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:54:30.022Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-04T23:00:32.368Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-04T23:02:29.996Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-04T23:18:00.239Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-04T23:26:13.141Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-04T23:33:30.507Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-04T23:37:52.449Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-04T23:40:31.794Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-04T23:50:53.911Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-04T23:55:30.441Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-04T23:59:26.046Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-05T00:06:17.684Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-05T00:16:32.659Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-05T00:24:34.591Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-05T00:30:35.367Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-05T00:46:49.172Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-05T00:54:28.557Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-05T01:02:26.800Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-05T01:09:34.463Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-05T01:15:31.611Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-05T01:30:34.523Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-05T01:38:30.408Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-05T01:51:33.857Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-05T01:53:34.742Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-05T01:59:26.723Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-05T02:03:29.491Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
MARKET DATA UNAVAILABLE
- The current analysis expired or its live market source is temporarily unavailable.
- Expired Fair Price, Edge, Confidence and Verdict are withheld by the server.
- No trade signal is generated until a fresh calculation completes.
Current data cannot be used safely for a trade signal.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 05, 02:03 AM | 0.1% | 0.0% | −0.1 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 05, 01:59 AM | 0.1% | 0.0% | −0.1 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 05, 01:53 AM | 0.1% | 0.0% | −0.1 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 05, 01:51 AM | 0.1% | 0.0% | −0.1 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 05, 01:38 AM | 0.1% | 0.0% | −0.1 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 05, 01:30 AM | 0.1% | 0.0% | −0.1 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 05, 01:15 AM | 0.1% | 0.0% | −0.1 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 05, 01:09 AM | 0.1% | 0.0% | −0.1 pp | NO EDGE |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1-minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) on the date specified in the title, between 12:00 AM ET and 11:59 PM ET has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.