Will annual inflation be 3.2% in July?
Ends: Aug 12, 2026, 03:59 UTCMarket data: Aug 10, 2026, 05:35 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10T01:18:12.537Z | 4.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T01:28:35.718Z | 4.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T01:33:54.208Z | 4.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T01:44:33.233Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T01:54:58.699Z | 4.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T02:00:04.267Z | 4.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T02:10:21.509Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T02:20:31.947Z | 4.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T02:31:07.670Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T02:41:33.820Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T02:46:39.400Z | 4.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T02:56:58.343Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T03:07:08.743Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T03:13:04.322Z | 4.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T03:23:33.397Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T03:34:10.656Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T03:44:20.081Z | 4.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T03:49:22.739Z | 4.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T03:59:42.415Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T04:09:55.766Z | 4.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T04:20:09.373Z | 4.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T04:25:18.367Z | 4.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T04:35:37.523Z | 4.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T04:45:57.520Z | 4.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T04:56:14.804Z | 4.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T05:06:23.518Z | 4.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T05:11:36.387Z | 4.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T05:21:49.573Z | 4.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T05:33:44.012Z | 4.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T05:35:55.937Z | 4.6% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending July 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.