NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by December 31, 2026?
Ends: Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 7, 2026, 09:04 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07T06:34:29.857Z | 7.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T06:39:39.321Z | 7.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T06:44:49.929Z | 8.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T06:49:58.959Z | 8.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T06:55:05.715Z | 8.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T07:00:09.749Z | 8.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T07:05:13.995Z | 8.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T07:10:20.737Z | 8.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T07:15:23.705Z | 8.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T07:20:28.644Z | 8.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T07:25:52.909Z | 8.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T07:31:04.247Z | 8.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T07:36:11.204Z | 8.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T07:42:20.760Z | 8.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T07:47:30.433Z | 8.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T07:52:34.631Z | 8.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T07:58:27.000Z | 8.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T08:03:33.410Z | 8.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T08:08:42.023Z | 8.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T08:14:04.108Z | 8.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T08:19:11.036Z | 8.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T08:24:17.255Z | 8.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T08:29:28.453Z | 8.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T08:34:34.174Z | 8.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T08:39:40.711Z | 8.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T08:44:48.864Z | 8.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T08:49:59.398Z | 8.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T08:55:09.909Z | 8.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T09:00:19.105Z | 8.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T09:04:01.979Z | 8.0% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Yes" if active military personnel officially affiliated with any NATO or EU country enter Ukraine for combat-related military purposes directly pertaining to the ongoing conflict with Russia by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For military personnel to qualify toward a "Yes" resolution, they must be 1) officially acknowledged as active military by the NATO or EU entity or member state they are affiliated with; 2) be publicly acknowledged by NATO or an EU-affiliated entity to have entered Ukraine for a combat-related military purpose directly pertaining to the ongoing conflict with Russia. For military personnel to qualify toward a "Yes" resolution they need be active duty and acknowledged as described above. Participation in a combat role is necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes" (e.g. military personnel providing training or intelligence support would not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution, however drone pilots or infantry directly attacking Russian troops, or soldiers targeting and downing missiles from Ukrainian soil would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO, the EU, or member states of either entity, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.