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Politics · POLYMARKET · LIVE

Will the US announce a diesel export ban by September 30?

Ends: Oct 1, 2026, 03:59 UTCMarket data: Sep 28, 2026, 16:23 UTC

VERDICTFAIR VALUE CALCULATING

POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR

Probability divergence over time

POLYMARKET YES 2.8%MARX FAIR YES -
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair0.0%1.3%2.5%3.8%5.0%
MARX FAIRFair Price is calculating. The line appears after data validation.
Sep 28, 03:28 PMSep 28, 03:42 PMSep 28, 03:55 PMSep 28, 04:09 PMSep 28, 04:23 PM UTC

YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-09-28T15:28:33.880Z2.8%-—
2026-09-28T15:33:47.018Z2.8%-—
2026-09-28T15:39:17.286Z2.8%-—
2026-09-28T15:45:09.196Z2.8%-—
2026-09-28T15:50:18.263Z2.8%-—
2026-09-28T16:06:49.008Z2.8%-—
2026-09-28T16:12:09.182Z2.8%-—
2026-09-28T16:17:19.141Z2.8%-—
2026-09-28T16:23:17.807Z2.8%-—

MARKET TIMELINE

Events are placed when they became available to the system

0 events

No linked events in this range.

FAIR PRICE CALCULATION

  • Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
  • A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.

There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.

KEY RISKS

  • New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.

RESOLUTION CRITERIA

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, the White House, a Cabinet member, an agency or department legally authorized to take such action, or an authorized representative thereof, publicly and officially announces a ban on the export of diesel from the United States between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, a "ban on the export of diesel" means a prohibition on the exportation of diesel fuel (distillate fuel oil) from the United States, whether imposed on all exports or on substantially all exports. A restriction, quota, tariff, licensing requirement, destination-specific ban, or other limitation short of an export prohibition will not qualify unless it operates as a general prohibition on diesel exports. A prohibition may qualify whether it is temporary or permanent, provided the announcement clearly communicates a prohibition on diesel exports. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the U.S. government's present implementation of, previously-unannounced prior implementation of, or definitive decision to implement a ban on the export of diesel. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a ban on the export of diesel. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such a ban, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the ban by name, provided the substance of a prohibition on diesel exports is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. An announcement by the U.S. government that it accepts or agrees to an agreement, framework, or roadmap that includes a commitment to ban diesel exports qualifies only if (i) all parties whose acceptance is required for the agreement to take effect have accepted the agreement, or (ii) the announcement independently communicates the ban as a present and decided position of the United States, not contingent on acceptance by any other party. The following do not qualify as official announcements: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the U.S. government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States will announce or implement such a ban; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional implementation of such a ban rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a ban on diesel exports is ever actually implemented. Resolution will be based on official information from the U.S. government or its authorized representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.