Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Ends: Jan 1, 2027, 05:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 28, 2026, 17:07 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T14:40:11.402Z | 34.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T14:45:14.001Z | 34.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T14:50:19.321Z | 34.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T14:55:23.617Z | 34.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T15:00:28.603Z | 34.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T15:05:34.162Z | 34.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T15:10:43.637Z | 34.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T15:15:49.588Z | 34.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T15:20:53.060Z | 34.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T15:25:58.187Z | 33.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T15:31:05.058Z | 33.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T15:36:07.882Z | 33.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T15:41:11.491Z | 34.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T15:46:17.344Z | 34.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T15:51:21.374Z | 34.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T15:56:26.601Z | 34.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T16:01:31.926Z | 34.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T16:06:36.562Z | 34.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T16:11:41.727Z | 34.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T16:16:47.353Z | 34.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T16:21:53.103Z | 34.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T16:26:56.739Z | 34.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T16:32:02.370Z | 34.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T16:37:07.161Z | 34.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T16:42:12.225Z | 34.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T16:47:17.903Z | 34.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T16:52:22.163Z | 34.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T16:57:39.346Z | 34.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T17:03:30.840Z | 34.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T17:07:42.865Z | 34.5% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.