Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends: Dec 31, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 28, 2026, 20:29 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27T12:52:28.304Z | 34.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T02:38:56.730Z | 34.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T02:59:17.394Z | 34.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T03:24:37.238Z | 34.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T03:44:57.237Z | 34.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T04:05:17.201Z | 34.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T04:25:39.342Z | 34.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T04:45:57.243Z | 34.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T05:06:17.129Z | 34.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T05:26:31.965Z | 34.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T05:46:47.422Z | 34.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T06:07:07.242Z | 34.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T06:27:27.271Z | 34.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T06:47:37.082Z | 34.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T07:07:57.107Z | 34.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T07:28:47.525Z | 34.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T07:50:07.332Z | 35.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T08:10:27.476Z | 34.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:13:52.659Z | 34.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:34:12.896Z | 34.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T16:54:17.528Z | 34.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T17:15:24.304Z | 34.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T17:35:54.098Z | 34.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T17:56:31.159Z | 34.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T18:17:03.887Z | 34.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T18:37:20.708Z | 34.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T18:57:45.166Z | 34.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T19:44:23.216Z | 34.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T20:04:31.301Z | 34.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T20:25:00.831Z | 34.5% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.