Spread: Lions (-6.5)
Ends: Sep 27, 2026, 17:00 UTCMarket data: Sep 28, 2026, 05:41 UTCResult: LIONSResolved: Sep 27, 2026, 22:00 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
LIONS probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26T08:56:57.894Z | 50.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-26T09:58:56.757Z | 50.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-26T10:54:58.643Z | 50.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-26T12:59:03.900Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-26T13:28:59.936Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-26T14:56:01.794Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-26T15:59:28.139Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-26T16:58:19.349Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-26T17:47:14.289Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-26T18:58:18.304Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-26T19:59:16.855Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-26T20:56:57.149Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-26T22:20:50.009Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-26T23:54:50.611Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-27T00:51:03.032Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-27T01:55:06.828Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-27T02:58:50.251Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-27T03:56:15.025Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-27T05:37:59.114Z | 50.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-27T06:39:29.971Z | 50.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-27T07:58:34.152Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-27T08:50:45.291Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-27T09:59:33.081Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-27T10:10:06.617Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-27T11:13:38.324Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-27T12:19:33.776Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-27T13:20:36.766Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-27T14:24:36.062Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-27T15:47:25.857Z | 52.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-28T05:41:51.828Z | 100.0% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- No verified analysis was published before the market closed.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 27 at 1:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Lions" if the Lions win the game by 7 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Jets". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Jets". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.