UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)
Ends: Aug 16, 2026, 03:59 UTCMarket data: Aug 9, 2026, 20:59 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
ISLAM MAKHACHEV probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08T13:57:13.522Z | 75.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T14:55:17.741Z | 75.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T15:58:08.106Z | 75.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T16:55:18.146Z | 75.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T17:43:07.585Z | 75.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T19:59:05.347Z | 75.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T21:27:42.049Z | 75.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T21:49:04.911Z | 75.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T22:51:05.548Z | 75.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T23:54:30.288Z | 75.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T00:55:53.916Z | 75.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T02:03:45.942Z | 75.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T03:05:37.580Z | 75.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T04:08:52.371Z | 75.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T05:10:25.605Z | 75.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T06:13:51.386Z | 75.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T07:20:30.546Z | 75.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T08:23:48.238Z | 75.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T09:26:18.172Z | 75.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T10:29:59.698Z | 75.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T11:31:31.930Z | 75.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T12:35:30.563Z | 75.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T13:38:38.558Z | 75.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T14:40:54.832Z | 75.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T15:44:21.952Z | 75.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T16:51:05.807Z | 75.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T17:54:11.122Z | 75.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T18:56:53.580Z | 75.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T19:59:08.302Z | 75.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T20:59:37.421Z | 75.5% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Islam Makhachev" if Islam Makhachev is officially declared the winner of the fight against Ian Machado Garry at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, scheduled for August 15, 2026. It will resolve to "Ian Machado Garry" if Ian Machado Garry is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 29, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.