National Bank Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Alex Michelsen
Ends: Aug 14, 2026, 14:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 7, 2026, 19:22 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
DANIEL MERIDA AGUILAR probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06T22:13:06.798Z | 29.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-06T23:13:11.264Z | 29.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T00:09:39.035Z | 29.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T01:11:20.626Z | 29.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T02:14:20.407Z | 29.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T03:21:19.749Z | 28.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T04:24:35.387Z | 28.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T05:26:21.322Z | 28.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T06:29:25.565Z | 28.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T07:31:04.247Z | 28.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T08:34:25.752Z | 28.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T09:41:05.878Z | 27.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T10:44:34.528Z | 27.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T11:46:55.751Z | 27.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T12:49:37.165Z | 27.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T13:51:06.432Z | 27.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T14:54:23.218Z | 27.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T16:01:08.230Z | 27.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T17:03:55.663Z | 52.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T18:05:37.191Z | 63.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T19:09:25.104Z | 100.0% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market refers to the tennis match between Daniel Merida Aguilar and Alex Michelsen in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 7, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Daniel Merida Aguilar' if Daniel Merida Aguilar advances against Alex Michelsen. This market will resolve to 'Alex Michelsen' if Alex Michelsen advances against Daniel Merida Aguilar. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.