China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
Ends: Dec 31, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 21, 2026, 11:04 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21T07:38:44.523Z | 29.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-21T07:44:16.846Z | 29.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-21T07:50:18.186Z | 29.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-21T07:55:34.409Z | 29.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-21T08:01:44.939Z | 29.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-21T08:19:29.599Z | 29.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-21T08:24:47.871Z | 29.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-21T08:30:23.044Z | 29.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-21T08:52:58.271Z | 29.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-21T08:58:20.660Z | 29.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-21T09:19:31.093Z | 29.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-21T09:24:40.519Z | 29.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-21T09:30:11.872Z | 29.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-21T09:35:30.467Z | 29.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-21T09:40:44.126Z | 29.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-21T09:46:35.270Z | 29.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-21T09:58:13.881Z | 29.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-21T10:03:26.910Z | 29.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-21T10:08:33.249Z | 29.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-21T10:13:57.027Z | 29.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-21T10:19:18.527Z | 29.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-21T10:24:30.357Z | 29.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-21T10:29:57.514Z | 30.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-21T10:35:17.752Z | 30.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-21T10:40:22.385Z | 30.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-21T10:45:27.780Z | 30.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-21T10:50:47.666Z | 30.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-21T10:55:52.929Z | 30.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-21T11:00:56.893Z | 30.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-21T11:04:27.868Z | 30.0% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.