Will John Nagel be the MN-05 Republican nominee?
Ends: Aug 11, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 10, 2026, 02:50 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10T00:20:31.310Z | 26.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T00:25:42.289Z | 26.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T00:30:51.895Z | 26.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T00:35:57.059Z | 26.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T00:41:02.940Z | 26.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T00:46:14.023Z | 26.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T00:51:26.174Z | 26.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T00:56:32.876Z | 26.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T01:01:36.730Z | 26.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T01:06:44.836Z | 26.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T01:13:07.605Z | 26.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T01:18:12.537Z | 26.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T01:23:19.965Z | 26.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T01:28:35.718Z | 26.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T01:33:54.208Z | 26.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T01:39:01.941Z | 26.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T01:44:33.233Z | 26.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T01:49:41.927Z | 26.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T01:54:58.699Z | 26.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T02:00:04.267Z | 26.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T02:05:14.399Z | 26.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T02:10:21.509Z | 26.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T02:15:28.777Z | 25.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T02:20:31.947Z | 25.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T02:25:59.635Z | 25.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T02:31:07.670Z | 25.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T02:36:17.531Z | 24.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T02:41:33.820Z | 24.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T02:46:39.400Z | 25.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T02:50:50.780Z | 25.0% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.