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Politics · POLYMARKET · LIVE

Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?

Ends: Sep 24, 2026, 03:59 UTCMarket data: Sep 19, 2026, 20:26 UTC

VERDICTFAIR VALUE CALCULATING

POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR

Probability divergence over time

POLYMARKET YES 71.5%MARX FAIR YES -
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair0%25%50%75%100%
MARX FAIRFair Price is calculating. The line appears after data validation.
Sep 19, 02:29 PMSep 19, 03:58 PMSep 19, 05:28 PMSep 19, 06:57 PMSep 19, 08:26 PM UTC

YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-09-19T17:52:56.770Z66.5%-
2026-09-19T17:58:01.737Z66.5%-
2026-09-19T18:03:05.591Z66.5%-
2026-09-19T18:08:09.142Z66.5%-
2026-09-19T18:14:23.850Z66.5%-
2026-09-19T18:19:28.542Z66.5%-
2026-09-19T18:24:35.719Z66.5%-
2026-09-19T18:29:37.453Z66.5%-
2026-09-19T18:34:42.094Z66.5%-
2026-09-19T18:39:48.946Z66.5%-
2026-09-19T18:45:31.230Z66.5%-
2026-09-19T18:50:44.397Z66.5%-
2026-09-19T18:55:47.226Z66.5%-
2026-09-19T19:01:11.894Z69.0%-
2026-09-19T19:06:20.826Z69.0%-
2026-09-19T19:11:24.601Z70.5%-
2026-09-19T19:16:39.040Z71.0%-
2026-09-19T19:21:47.368Z70.5%-
2026-09-19T19:27:13.731Z70.5%-
2026-09-19T19:34:14.689Z70.5%-
2026-09-19T19:39:27.034Z70.5%-
2026-09-19T19:44:36.933Z70.5%-
2026-09-19T19:49:44.294Z70.5%-
2026-09-19T19:54:45.784Z70.5%-
2026-09-19T20:02:15.995Z70.5%-
2026-09-19T20:07:22.224Z70.5%-
2026-09-19T20:12:30.245Z71.5%-
2026-09-19T20:17:36.007Z72.0%-
2026-09-19T20:22:46.668Z71.5%-
2026-09-19T20:26:43.972Z71.5%-

MARKET TIMELINE

Events are placed when they became available to the system

0 events

No linked events in this range.

FAIR PRICE CALCULATION

  • Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
  • A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.

There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.

KEY RISKS

  • New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.

RESOLUTION CRITERIA

This market will resolve to “Yes” if both Denmark and the United States sign a deal, treaty, or similar international agreement of any kind relating to Greenland by September 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any U.S.–Danish agreement relating to Greenland will qualify, regardless of subject matter, including but not limited to sovereignty, governance, security arrangements, or access to natural resources. Examples of qualifying deals include but are not limited to a treaty that makes any portion of Greenland a U.S. territory or possession (even if the handover date for such territory or possession is later); or, a Guantánamo-style arrangement treaty establishing a defined zone in Greenland under exclusive or primary U.S. jurisdiction and control, where Denmark and Greenland’s ordinary legal authority does not apply except by U.S. permission; or agreements permitting additional U.S. troop stationing, basing access, or resource extraction rights in Greenland. This market will resolve to “Yes” only if a qualifying agreement is formally signed by authorized representatives of both Denmark and the United States. Official announcements, statements of intent, or declarations that an agreement has been reached will not suffice unless accompanied by signatures from both sides. Whether or not a qualifying deal is later passed by the respective parliaments or enters into force will not affect this market’s resolution. Signaling from Greenland’s population will not be considered. Announcements, negotiations, proposals, frameworks, or understandings that are not formally signed by both parties will not qualify. Any qualifying U.S. jurisdiction, control, basing rights, or access arrangements in Greenland that existed at market creation will not count as new qualifying agreements. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.