Dota 2: Team Falcons vs OG - Game 1 Winner
Ends: Aug 1, 2026, 22:30 UTCMarket data: Aug 1, 2026, 20:23 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
TEAM FALCONS probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01T17:55:08.299Z | 22.4% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T18:00:48.797Z | 48.9% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T18:12:36.806Z | 48.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T18:18:23.353Z | 21.2% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T18:25:21.796Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T18:31:42.876Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T18:41:03.861Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T18:47:39.611Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T18:57:34.282Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T19:05:31.509Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T19:12:20.951Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T19:18:24.499Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T19:25:37.721Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T19:32:49.894Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T19:39:15.399Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T19:44:59.773Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T19:54:32.994Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T19:59:35.332Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T20:16:01.338Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T20:23:25.483Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T20:23:33.730Z | 0.1% | - | — |
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market refers to the Dota 2 match between Team Falcons and OG in the 1win Essence Group B, initially scheduled for August 1 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Falcons" if Team Falcons win Game 1 against OG. This market will resolve to "OG" if OG win Game 1 against Team Falcons. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.