Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by August 31?
Ends: Sep 1, 2026, 03:59 UTCMarket data: Aug 24, 2026, 19:43 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15T00:56:27.312Z | 14.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-15T04:57:38.150Z | 16.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-15T09:54:18.709Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-15T13:59:39.594Z | 13.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-15T18:57:33.741Z | 13.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-15T22:59:09.061Z | 13.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-16T03:57:49.187Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-16T08:59:40.613Z | 13.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-16T12:59:30.857Z | 13.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-16T17:56:02.912Z | 11.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T04:57:16.428Z | 14.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T06:56:30.116Z | 12.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T11:59:02.934Z | 11.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T15:56:19.940Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T20:59:38.771Z | 10.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T00:57:07.312Z | 12.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-21T22:42:56.206Z | 0.7% | - | — |
| 2026-08-22T13:54:41.667Z | 0.9% | - | — |
| 2026-08-22T20:58:07.048Z | 0.9% | - | — |
| 2026-08-22T22:58:39.876Z | 0.9% | - | — |
| 2026-08-23T02:58:44.301Z | 0.9% | - | — |
| 2026-08-23T07:58:54.116Z | 0.9% | - | — |
| 2026-08-23T12:49:08.251Z | 1.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-23T16:36:22.365Z | 0.9% | - | — |
| 2026-08-23T21:06:33.011Z | 0.9% | - | — |
| 2026-08-24T01:39:23.861Z | 1.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-24T06:10:11.656Z | 1.7% | - | — |
| 2026-08-24T10:41:10.509Z | 0.9% | - | — |
| 2026-08-24T15:16:52.579Z | 0.7% | - | — |
| 2026-08-24T19:43:32.504Z | 0.7% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.