Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?
Ends: Dec 9, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Sep 16, 2026, 20:30 UTCResult: YESResolved: Sep 16, 2026, 20:02 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19T14:59:16.742Z | 41.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-19T18:55:44.853Z | 40.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-19T23:55:51.221Z | 40.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-20T03:57:12.935Z | 40.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-20T08:44:03.012Z | 40.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-20T13:42:53.311Z | 40.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-22T16:52:50.421Z | 40.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-22T19:56:00.931Z | 40.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-22T23:55:53.903Z | 40.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-23T04:53:17.987Z | 40.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-23T09:44:05.310Z | 40.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-23T13:57:22.273Z | 40.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-24T03:59:35.421Z | 40.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-24T07:59:37.432Z | 40.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-24T12:57:22.869Z | 40.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-24T17:32:23.014Z | 40.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-24T21:58:53.214Z | 40.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-25T01:57:00.672Z | 40.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-25T11:55:17.963Z | 42.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-25T15:51:06.570Z | 42.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-25T19:58:18.643Z | 42.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-26T00:35:26.201Z | 42.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-26T04:56:41.183Z | 42.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-15T15:55:54.189Z | 89.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-15T18:56:22.398Z | 91.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-15T22:59:36.421Z | 90.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-16T03:27:25.351Z | 90.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-16T08:01:57.717Z | 91.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-16T12:39:58.976Z | 91.0% | - | — |
| 2026-09-16T17:02:07.230Z | 90.5% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- No verified analysis was published before the market closed.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate hikes will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.