VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +44.75 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - August 4, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 21.5%Marx Fair UP 21.5%
Aug 04, 11:50 PMAug 04, 11:52 PMAug 04, 11:54 PMAug 04, 11:57 PMAug 04, 11:59 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04T23:50:06.189Z | 54.5% | 52.5% | -2.0 pp |
| 2026-08-04T23:50:20.398Z | 52.5% | 52.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-04T23:50:30.842Z | 58.5% | 58.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-04T23:50:37.517Z | 58.5% | 100.0% | +41.5 pp |
| 2026-08-04T23:51:05.174Z | 54.5% | 100.0% | +45.5 pp |
| 2026-08-04T23:53:31.481Z | 15.5% | 15.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-04T23:54:03.327Z | 15.5% | 15.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-04T23:54:04.576Z | 15.5% | 15.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-04T23:55:04.648Z | 15.5% | 100.0% | +84.5 pp |
| 2026-08-04T23:55:31.514Z | 15.5% | 100.0% | +84.5 pp |
| 2026-08-04T23:56:04.507Z | 15.5% | 100.0% | +84.5 pp |
| 2026-08-04T23:57:04.507Z | 15.5% | 15.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-04T23:57:24.642Z | 15.5% | 15.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-04T23:58:06.379Z | 15.5% | 15.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-04T23:59:04.525Z | 21.5% | 21.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-04T23:59:25.748Z | 21.5% | 21.5% | -0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 52.0%.
- The executable UP entry was 53.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 44.7 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 53.0%, gross edge 47.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 44.8%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.