Ethereum Prediction Markets
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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +27.31 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 2, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%51.1% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY19.4%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+27.31 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-10.6%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 44.5%Marx Fair UP 0.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Aug 02, 04:47 PMAug 02, 04:48 PMAug 02, 04:49 PMAug 02, 04:49 PMAug 02, 04:50 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-02T16:47:27.203Z49.5%2.7%-46.8 pp
2026-08-02T16:50:42.392Z34.5%0.0%-34.5 pp
2026-08-02T16:50:46.170Z44.5%0.0%-44.5 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 19.4% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 51.1¢ with a net modeled edge of 27.3 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.3%, gross edge 31.6%, slippage 0.3%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 29.1%. Marx fair UP is 17.4%.

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +27.31 pp Edge | AntiPredict