VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +18.94 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - August 2, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
No price history is available for this range.
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 26.3% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 52.5¢ with a net modeled edge of 18.9 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 52.5%, gross edge 20.1%, slippage 1.5%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 16.4%. Marx fair UP is 28.9%.